How Sportsbook Error Rates Affect the Profitability of a Sportsbook

A sportsbook is a place where people can make wagers on different sporting events. It can be a physical or online establishment. Regardless of the type of sportsbook, it is important to understand how betting works. It is also helpful to know the rules and regulations that govern betting in each state.

While multiple studies have found evidence for sports market inefficiencies [2], the majority of bettors do not appear to exploit them [3]. One possible explanation is that sportsbooks propose values that deviate from their theoretical optimum in order to entice a preponderance of bets on the side that maximizes their excess error rate.

Using empirical data from real-world games, this paper analyzes the distribution of sportsbook error rates. It demonstrates that the probability of a unit bet winning against the spread is proportional to the deviation from the median, and it shows how large this deviation must be for a sportsbook to allow positive expected profit.

Sportsbooks earn revenue by charging a commission, known as the vig, on losing bets. This is how they balance the books and ensure their profitability. To increase profits, sportsbooks adjust their lines in moneyline bets and over/under bets. For example, if Patrick Mahomes’ passing total opened at 249.5 yards and the sportsbook was taking action on the over, they would lower the over/under to encourage more action on the under. They may also move the line in a straight bet, or shift odds in props and futures bets, as needed.

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